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A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."