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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, largely rely on continued Western support.